I’ve spoken with dozens of store owners and retail experts across the US, and reflected on my own time working in both retail and tech. The contrast is stark: in tech, everything is measured and optimized in real time; in retail, inventory tracking, and forecasting are still painful, and error prone.

Meanwhile, the tools gap between big retailers and independents keeps widening. The largest players have armies of analysts and sophisticated systems; smaller stores are left with spreadsheets and gut instinct.

But they don’t have to be. Most stores already sit on top of tons of unexplored insights. Their next best seller is already in their data.

This post is about small steps that can dramatically improve data driven ops and decision making. It’s an overview of where the process pains are, how independent retailers can elevate their ops with new tools, and what I’m building to make retail slightly better— one tiny step at a time.

Let’s dive in.

Smarter merchandising

Working with customers at a major retailer in SoHo, I learned firsthand how broken store tech can be. I couldn’t see what was selling the best, or what was about to hit the floor. I had no way of knowing which items to spotlight for the highest chance of closing a sale. That meant I couldn’t answer most of the upsell questions customers cared about. Instead, I was relying on memory and gut instinct, while constantly feeling a step behind. Our collections often felt mis-matched. What was relevant wasn’t what we were pushing.

Customers noticed. One woman even called me out in a Yelp review for not knowing if a particular style was in store. Since then, walking through boutiques in Miami, LA, and New York, I can sense which stores still don’t know their own best sellers.

Now contrast that with the leaders: Reformation, Zara, Aritzia, Revolve and beyond. These stores operate around sell-through. Stores are tuned to their neighborhood taste. If a style takes off in SoHo, store managers flag it and HQ adjusts supply. Fast movers shift to the front, slower ones disappear. Data reveals what’s selling, and the bestsellers rise to the top of the assortment. Supply follows demand.

That same level of clarity shouldn’t just belong to Zara or Revolve. Independent stores deserve it too. That philosophy is why I wanted to build a sell-through app for merchants: it categorizes products, analyzes performance, and delivers clear reports by location, color, material, and more. With one click, independent operators can finally see what’s truly selling and why, so they can run their stores with as much science to their art as they wish.

Smarter demand planning

Working on inventory operations for a retail brand, I watched the same blind spots play out on a bigger scale. We spent weeks building forecasts in Excel, placing massive bets on inventory performance for months ahead. A single misstep could lead to stock-outs, overstocks, or both. Real cash was on the line, with no guarantee the inventory would actually turn into revenue.

How do you decide how much to buy or make, especially over a high breadth of SKUs, 90 days in advance? How do you do it when location, product category, seasonality, and marketing spend all play critical roles?

Walmart, Amazon, and Target offer great examples. These giants improve forecast accuracy with machine learning. Their models go beyond straight line growth forecasts in Excel; they factor in seasonality, promotions, weather, holidays, and demographics to predict demand by SKU. Amazon can even auto-adjust marketing spend towards trending products.

Yet, discretionary fashion is even more complicated. We can see on Pinterest, Google Search trends and online trend reports that styles move quickly and actively shape demand. What good is my forecast for dresses overall, if my actuals are driven by red minis because that style is 20% more popular this season? What if next season that switches to yellow?

There’s now a plethora of independent trend analysts doing style reports on weekly and monthly trends. And while reading about how butter yellow spiked in search interest +200% WoW may helpful in storefront placements, the best data towards better planning is your own.

Smarter supply chains

It’s not just about how much to order, it’s also about knowing when to order and making sure it gets there on time.

Suppliers abroad are known to be unpredictable. Lead times are already strained from ocean shipping alone, but adding in supplier delays further adds error to the process.

And while I’m super excited about the potential to manufacture clothing with robots in the US, that’s still far way (AI can generate art but can’t fold knits.. bummer). What we can do today is obsess over orders and their delivery times.

Smart retailers track vendor gaps in delivery times, adjusting POs based on supplier reliability. Zara builds dynamic risk models based on factory reliability. Apple tracks supplier reliability scores.

Especially for new or scaling brands, a growth year can mean constant reorders. For independent retailers, Shopify apps help with restock alerts based on lead time and automating supplier purchase orders. Lightspeed can automate purchase orders as well.

Starting with tracking supplier lead times is the first step to smoother reorders and lower stockout rates.

Smarter buying

Not every restock is a manufacturing constraint. The majority of fashion is still built around the buying process. Brands compete for placement with key stores for reputation, revenue and simpler operations. Platforms like JOOR and NuOrder digitize the showroom, offering polished presentations to buyers. Faire connects brands with retailers to coordinate large orders. And trade shows remain as active as ever.

But how do buyers decide what to stock in their stores? Famous boutiques like Kirna Zabête insist it starts with knowing your customer. The work is obsessively observing what people actually wear, knowing their customers’ preferences better than everyone else; especially by location, which is where physical stores have an advantage over e-commerce.

Instead of guessing, smarter stores can lean on their own sell-through data in an organized and actionable way. If dresses from a certain brand outperformed the category last season, and the lift came from a particular style, they arm themselves with these insights.

Smarter operations

Independent retailers don’t have the luxury of large analyst teams. They don’t have endless hours to track inventory, forecast supplier lead times, analyze styles by SKU, or obsess over sales data.

When I first started building sell-through reports, I’d lose hours digging through filters just to find the patterns. I thought, there must be an easier way to get the key insights quickly. This is why I layered in machine learning to identify which factors drove sell-through, then used a large language model to summarize the results in a clean way. Now, instead of drowning in numbers, I get a weekly readout: clear, custom insights that surface what matters most. Like a pocket merchandising analyst, but on demand.

Thanks for reading

I don’t have all the answers, but I know this: independent stores deserve the same clarity and tools as the biggest players. Reinstock is one small step in that direction, built out of my own curiosity, a lot of listening, and many late nights iterating. Reinstock is now on Shopify, available on demand to support independent stores with style level sell-through reports. If you’re a retailer, a buyer, or just someone who loves good ops, I’d love to hear your perspective.

According to the Dallas Fed Survey, 70% of (Texas) retailers expect to raise prices within the next three months. Companies are starting to feel rising costs—most just haven’t passed them on to consumers yet. But they will.

At the latest Fed press conference, Powell acknowledged the growing risks of both inflation and unemployment, but emphasized that there's still not enough hard data to drive a new policy decision. Meanwhile, shipments have stalled and Chinese factories are trying to figure out how to unload hundreds of thousands of pieces of clothing American companies can’t accept. The impact likely won’t hit until June or July, so we may get to enjoy a peaceful hot girl summer before the fundamentals crash through the door late and chaotic as usual.

Consumers don’t seem swayed by record levels of credit card debt in a rush to stock up. Retail sales rebounded in April up 7% year over year. This seems to be driven by electronics and home supplies, perhaps a pre-tariff purchase rush. Even apparel showed growth, although premium retailers like LVMH, Nike, and Nordstrom posted Q1 year on year revenue declines, while Walmart and Amazon saw gains—suggesting a shift toward value-oriented shopping. Walmart, in particular, is going on offense, leveraging AI to identify and act on consumer trends faster than ever.

Similarly, I identify what’s trending and selling out fastest, with a bit of AI help to categorize and organize. Check out my dash snapshot HERE for the report, and read on for April's biggest movers.

So, what’s selling in April? Let’s dive in.

Linen

I mentioned in my 2024 overview that linen was poised for a bigger comeback in 2025. Linen is now a presence on best-seller and landing pages across retailers. What’s different this time is the range: black and pink linen shirts, little black linen dresses, and even green linen vests. Since March, linen has grown in both inventory mix and out-of-stock rates, signaling strong demand. It’s also the fastest-growing keyword in retailer email promotions, up 5% month-over-month in mentions as we near summer.

White and Blue

White is rapidly growing in product mix. It tends to be more in-demand over the summer. Makes sense — retailers are stocking up.

What’s more interesting is blue. It has replaced red as the core color; it's now a top three most common color in stock, right behind white and black. It’s trending heavy on socials under a ‘Sky Blue’ trend. This is right on time seasonally as well — blue tends to outpace red in the hotter months. It’s probably top of mind for retailers as it’s the most mentioned color in email promos – at 11%. All of this is showing up in what’s in stock; blue is growing in stockout rates across dresses and shorts.

Maxi dresses

I know—dresses for spring? Shocker. Right now what’s moving the most is sleeveless styles, maxis, and flared silhouettes. Maxis tend to peak around this time, as we enter prom and wedding season.

Flare skirts may be a continuation of last year’s styles. Last summer, the fit-and-flare dress in longer lengths dominated across trendy stores. Helsa’s flared sleeveless dress sparked a frenzy, alongside with a few other top picks. This year, it’s gone fully mainstream—Aritzia and even H&M now carry an identical style to kick off summer 2025. Perhaps we’ll see continued midi fitted flared styles grow down the line.

Fun surprises

A few emerging signals have also caught my attention—unique, early-stage trends that haven’t gone fully mainstream yet:

Fruits & Veggies – From giant lemon campaign visuals to adorable lemon-print dresses, fruit prints are popping up. I’m spotting apples, tomatoes and peppers sneak into best-seller items.

Flare sleeves – I’ve only seen one so far, but it sold out instantly. What stood out is that searches for flare sleeves are slowly ticking upward.

Green – There’s a subtle appetite for green. It hasn’t fully broken through yet, but it’s being mentioned in Reddit threads. One commenter dubbed it “matcha girl summer.”

Polka dots – I notice them creeping up more in best seller pages and slowly on the streets of New York.

Butter yellow - A present color amongst best seller items, but seems like interest has stayed pretty flat this month.

Thanks for reading

You can find the full report and support my work HERE. All reporting is based on my observations, using public sources and tools I built.

That’s what the ocean freight markets are like – and boy, are people “cancelling” their ships. In early April, ocean freight bookings to the US were down by 64% from the week prior as tariffs unfolded. Even now, May is expected to come in at least 20% lower in bookings year over year.

Last time this happened, we ended up with 10x freight container costs and 8% inflation two years later.

Inflation’s like that bad boyfriend that we can’t just seem to get away from. We know it’s bad for us, yet the drama of another shipping mess with China is too thrilling to let go of. And so we are here again – poking the supply chain right as we had a historic soft-landing, flirting with the prospect of higher inflation. In our inflationship (it’s inflation + situationship + it has to do with actual ships!).

So let’s dive in.

Big Ships

I’m scared of ships. Nothing would freak me out more than being in a giant ocean, surrounded by nothing, on a giant floating container with no way off. For a month! It sounds terrifying.

Yet 16 million giant, brave, cool freight ships move our stuff each month – 1M of those are from China to the United States. Each ship carries ten thousand containers, each one worth $1.5K just for a one way trip.

And in September 2020, those ships got stuck.

Billions of dollars of goods would have to wait up to 4 weeks in line, on the sea, to be able to enter the ports of LA and NY through 2021 and 2022. Just floating there. Stuck on a ship, with the crew probably running out of food, not being able to land.

Ports got jammed as there were too many ships for the amount of docks, cranes and yard labor available. They simply didn’t have a stop button as America kept pressing Add to Cart for its goods and overloading the entire global supply chain with each click.

Stuck ships

Part of the bottleneck was driven by increased demand. The Fed slashed interest rates, bought back bonds, lowered loan expenses, and made us all feel richer and more likely to spend on 3 different House of CB dresses and its 5 Amazon dupes. Congress sent checks and unemployment bonuses to people, further boosting spending. Bridgewater shows HERE how household spending has been driven up by government stimulus over that time.

And the nature of the demand changed— e-commerce boomed. 2021 saw tons of new online store openings as entrepreneurship went mainstream. Shopify alone added 600K new stores between the end of 2019 and 2021– with 2020 bringing its largest gains in net new merchants added.

Fueled by our post COVID shopping addictions and open wallets, retailers rushed to get in stock. Inventories grew significantly for two years through 2022 – in a much more volatile way than the usual 2-3% annual inventory growth rate.

Cancelled ships

Yet our plumbing to support this growth was super outdated, and full of traps.

In the few weeks of March 2020, when demand froze, ocean carriers had to suddenly cancel – “blank sail"– a huge number of ship bookings to buffer collapsing demand. When ports reopened, they did so unevenly, demand patterns changed, and therefore all the routes were different. All the ships were in the wrong place.

Factories in China were packing up goods meant for ships that were still stuck in the US and more empty ships were going from US to China. It’s expensive and inefficient to try to reroute all these ships (quick math means one ship voyage is worth $10-20M in shipping revenue)– so carriers just drove up cancellations to reset schedules.

All the new Shopify and e-commerce stores added extra complexity – instead of moving one full container for someone like Walmart or Costco or Tesla, shippers were coordinating thousands of less than containers (LCLs) to make up full containers, and then coordinating different less than truckloads (LTLs) to make full truckloads across different hubs to different destinations.

It is amazing that shipments even got to their destination at all. But they did, for a much, much higher price.

By July 2021, container costs went from $1K to $10K – a 10x increase, where they stayed for nearly a year. It’s kind of like surge, but with the global economy.

Rich ships

In 2021, Maersk, an ocean carrier, the second most bravest and biggest shipper of ships, nearly doubled their revenues and tripled their profits year over year. They made more profit in 2021 than they had for the 3 years before that combined!

Carriers all over increased their contracted freight for better reliability, upsold customers on new routing and logistics services, and upsold more reliable services to their highest paying customers for higher rates.

Inflation Ships

Take the extra shipping cost, add the cost of overstocking to support the 2-4 week delay, add the higher truckload cost (which saw a similar dynamic as ships though not as intense), pass the cost on to the consumer from the retailer and there you have it – an 8% increase in prices by 2022 that shook the nation to its core and probably altered the future of America another two years later.

And that’s how bottlenecks and shake ups cause rapid supply and demand volatility, impacting pricing in every step of the chain. It’s why pausing shipments, altering supply chains, and adding extra instability, especially in our slow and outdated, low visibility supply chain is risky business.

Today’s Ships

So here we are, 5 years later from the pause that started it all – back at it again (Alex Cooper voice).

We already know containers have been paused in April 2025. The impact is still to be felt. It takes 30-60 days from containers to make it from China to New York and LA; we have a week or so until we start feeling the first effects. Retailers are bulked up – inventories for even Jan and Feb were at peak levels in prep for tariffs — but sales year to date have been strong as well.

What we don’t know is how long these trade shocks will continue and how strong consumer spending and inventory demand are going to be. Big retailers and carriers are acting fast to move in light of volatility, either way. According to the Flexport CEO, volumes are now being rerouted to India and Vietnam. More volatility means more room for error, more room for new lanes, more empty ships, more blank sailings, more delays down the line if the world can’t stabilize in time.

If demand remains strong, this could mean tightening and more profits for carriers like Maersk down the line. Their stock price is usually correlated with the Container Spot rate and this rate has been dropping so far this year per the impacts above. The calm before the bottleneck.

The key things to look out for are going to be signs of weakening demand and walk back from trade war; a calm recovery is now at stake.

Potential scenarios going forward in 2025

But there’s a bigger picture as well.

We think of the supply chain as some mysterious, behind the scenes, after thought — yet it drives everything in our life. When it gets triggered, it cascades into second and third order consequences in a chain that is consistently forgotten and underestimated.

And if inflation is all about the certain, efficient flow of goods — it rises as stuff gets stuck (in transport, or labor, or bureaucracy) — this whole decade of volatile inflation is a symptom of our society’s obsession with hype and bits while glossing over fundamentals and atoms. The real things.

The global economy just got very interesting again.

Over the month, US tariffs on Chinese imports have skyrocketed to 145%, and China has retaliated with 125% tariffs of its own. It’s a bitter, tit-for-tat escalation that’s nearly impossible to track — a self-inflicted (!!) shock to our supply chains and capital markets.

And the only reason we saw a pause from the US? Treasury yields climbed so high they started threatening the US budget and debt repayments — so Trump was forced to cool it. That is, only after Jamie Dimon spoke up about recession risk on Fox Business, of course.

Meanwhile, small business owners across the country are frozen. They’re facing brutal uncertainty, import-driven cash flow collapses, and in many cases, the risk of losing everything — even their homes. While they scramble to survive, banks and high-frequency traders are quietly profiting from the chaos and bringing in record trading earnings (more volatility = more arbitrage = more trading gains). Companies close to the President are getting exemptions while small businesses suffer.

Honestly, it is chilling. So let’s dive in.

Made in China

Chinese manufacturers are having a moment on Rednote and TikTok. They're posting behind-the-scenes reels claiming to produce luxury goods for major brands—often from the same factories—at a fraction of the price. Some even expose production costs and flaunt their ability to replicate high-end items down to the stitch, just without the logo. It’s the quiet part said out loud.

So, what’s in a name? Under EU law, a product can be labeled “Made in Italy” if its last substantial, economically justified transformation happens within Italian borders. That means as long as the final and significant step of production occurs in Italy—whether it's assembling, tailoring, or finishing touches—the product qualifies as long as it has been significantly altered or changed from its parts.

Either way, it’s hardly a secret that significant luxury production depends on China. Brands like Prada, Coach, Michael Kors, and Tory Burch have acknowledged manufacturing there either in interviews or financial reports. Many newer luxury labels wrap themselves in the aesthetic of Italian or French craftsmanship—while openly producing smaller goods, accessories, or components in China. LVMH had openly expanded its craftsmanship training program there recently.

Back in the early 2000s, Miuccia Prada was ahead of the curve, praising the quality of Chinese production and shifting 20% of Prada’s manufacturing there. “Sooner or later, it will happen to everyone,” she said. “Because [Chinese manufacturing] is so good.”

Nevertheless, there is no official confirmation of manufacturing operations in China for Louis Vuitton—and there’s no mention of it in their financial reports. As for Hermès, the Acquired podcast did a great deep dive into the brand’s singular approach to craftsmanship, emphasizing techniques that are uniquely Hermès and nearly impossible to replicate. I highly doubt their goods are made in China.

The viral videos circulating online are likely exaggerated with dupes, not authentic pieces. And the reason these manufacturers are exposing them? Probably because they’re not producing for those top-tier luxury brands—they’re supplying smaller, lesser-known labels that aren’t mentioned.

But it all speaks to something bigger.

The way I see it, the TikTok manufacturers’ claims are more than just flexes—they’re a direct callout to Western branding dominance. China already owns the supply chain, the craftsmanship, the manufacturing scale—and with Chinese consumers now driving a third of global luxury demand, they increasingly own distribution too.

The one thing China historically lacked was branding. But that’s changing. There’s a renewed sense of confidence, and new names like Icicle, Neiwai, and more are stepping into the spotlight. These brands aren’t just functional—they’re aesthetic, narrative-driven, and priced for high gross margins just like their Western DTC counterparts.

China is ready to call the shots.

China empowered direct to consumer

But let’s take a step back. What Chinese factories did do for Americans was directly empower the direct-to-consumer boom of the 2010s and 2020s. Chinese factories offered low unit costs, small minimum order quantities, and flexible customization; enabling rapid, feedback-driven production cycles. This in turn, lowered the barrier to entry. Up until April 2nd, anyone with a website, a photographer and a minimalist logo could easily launch a store. We got more stores, more choices, more Instagram ads, leading to more competition and lower prices.

This agility fueled thousands and thousands of new Shopify stores, Instagram-native brands, and TikTok Shop sellers. In 2010, there were 10K Shopify stores, with ecommerce at 4% of retail. By 2024, there were 3M Shopify stores in the United States, with ecommerce at 16%.

De minimis and global warehouses

Then, things got even more interesting. A wave of new business models emerged, built around squeezing every drop of efficiency from the supply chain. Shein, Temu, Cider—and nearly every TikTok dropshipper—leveraged a little-known US import rule called de minimis.

Originally designed for individual consumers shopping abroad, the rule allowed shipments under $800 to enter the US duty-free. No customs delays, no taxes, no paperwork. It was essentially a loophole that supercharged global e-commerce—and fueled an entire ecosystem of $5 tops, $15 dresses, and race-to-the-bottom pricing.

Here’s the thing – this setup means the key isn’t even about being US made, it’s about when and at which point you ship from abroad. US or non US, all types of brands operate without US warehouses. Instead, they ship direct-to-consumer from Asia, leaning into fast fulfillment, cheap cross-border logistics, and full exemption from domestic warehousing.

But that loophole is now closing. Starting May 2, de minimis will no longer apply in the same way. That’s likely why one of my favorite brands—Réalisation Par, an Australian label that ships from China—has announced it will increase prices on that date.

Global warehousing with China supply and US consumers has to be the worst set up for retailers now. Stores without US warehousing will be taxed not just on raw materials or manufacturing costs, but on the retail value of each product, every time it enters the country — often calculated at checkout or based on declared price. This means storing globally can make an entire business model unsustainable.

US production hasn’t caught up

So why can’t more retailers manufacture in the US? Well, some do. There’s been a quiet rise in LA manufacturing, with popular factories like TEG offering accessible production with low MOQs, especially popular among indie brands. It helps — but only so much. Today, as much as 98% of apparel is still made outside of the US.

Even then – similar to Made in Italy, US Made items often involve components, trims, or raw materials sourced abroad, which are still subject to tariffs when imported. Domestic production and warehousing soften the risk, but they don’t eliminate it.

Worse, the fewer brands that can afford to operate with Chinese supply chains, the fewer viable business models we have. Fewer orders, fewer factories. The reverse flywheel kicks in. LA production doesn’t scale without demand.

This brings me to the Busy Baby company covered by the New York Times. They can’t move manufacturing to the US even if they wanted to. Setting up their own factory would cost millions—completely out of reach. And working with American suppliers? Not an option either. No US manufacturer currently has the capability to produce their product.

Even if they could find one, they wouldn’t survive the transition. With just three months of inventory and a six month time to set up with a new factory, and debt on the line, there’s no room to rotate, no safety net to catch them.

And that’s the part that stings: if this whole trade war theater is really about helping American businesses and consumers—where’s the heads-up? The advisory support? The financing help to actually make that shift?

Worse, as businesses are increasingly serving global customers — rising reciprocal tariffs on US companies would make it harder for Americans to sell goods to EU, Australia, Asia and beyond. Even if I have a US warehouse, US suppliers — I am getting bigger costs from selling my American goods globally.

Americans’ only line of defense was (presumably) China dumping Treasuries and Jamie Dimon going on Fox Business.

What this means

Any small or mid-tier retailer selling to the US with suppliers in China, international warehouses, or thin margins is hurting right now.

Higher priced, bigger retailers can have some breathing room. For more premium apparel brands, margins can get as high as 80%. They’re not untouched, but they can absorb, adjust, or reprice and have room to breathe; especially when most of the industry is changing and they’re most likely to stay afloat. Some may even gain share as others scramble.

Many are still shipping old inventory or haven’t updated pricing structures yet. If things continue, we’re likely to see a 4–6 month lag in premium apparel before most consumers feel this in pricing.

Some businesses placed orders to China and paid for inventory before the tariffs went in effect. Now they’re stuck with 2x the cost of that inventory to get it into the country. If I ordered $100K worth of inventory that I paid for to drive revenue for the next 3 months — I am now stuck having to pay an extra $125K just to get the goods. This type of giant surprise cash bill can be devastating, and some SMBs are even choosing to shut down.

This sucks

Let’s put our Michael Burry hats on.

There are an estimated 3.5M of retail trade SMBs today, and assuming 50% (it can be as high as 70% according to FedEx) rely heavily on imports from China, that gives us nearly 2M that may not survive a shock without passing on prices, or shifting supply. Assuming that the majority of those at risk don’t make it and close, we can be looking at 1M of retail closures if things don’t change.

It is estimated that 10-20% of small business owners use home equity loans to finance their businesses (although this could be higher in 2024 - there’s not a lot of surveys/data). This would imply that hundreds of thousands of homeowners would be at risk of default if these businesses shut down.

Furthermore, if the average small business employs 6 people, we are well on the path to have an estimated 6M jobs lost (there are 20M total jobs in the US from retail trade SMBs)— meaning less spending, more fear, lower retail sales, and therefore tighter budgets continuing the spiral. That, on top of increasing prices from higher import costs and duties applied.

Even these shocks and uncertainty is harmful and increase risks.

What do we do

As a shopper right now, skip the big-box sales. Zara, Aritzia, Walmart, Revolve—they can afford to lure you in with discounts and absorb the risks. Small stores can’t.

If you love a small merchant, shop directly from them. If they offer gift cards, buy one—it gives them upfront cash flow. It’s a good time to purchase a gift card from your favorite small instagram brand. And unless something’s truly defective, don’t return it. Every return is a blow to their margins, especially now.

For stores, the picture is a lot tougher. Retailers must act to preserve revenue, drive cash inflows, and pivot supply chain risk down the line. Here’s a few quick wins:

1. Launch a gift card or store credit option for extra cash inflow now

Most Shopify stores offer built-in gift card features. If that doesn’t work, get creative—set up a Gumroad page or a simple donation/crowdfund option. Frame it as a rally to survive, not a charity plea. Some businesses have opened crowdfunding pages to pay the tariffs due.

2. Flag tariffs and raise prices on your site

Your customers aren’t clueless. Many will understand and support you—if you explain why prices are rising. Shopify just added a tariff pricing breakout feature. Consider adding a short note (like Realisation above) or in your product descriptions about how tariffs are affecting your business.

The opportunity cost of every item just went up. That item on your shelf? It might be the last one you’ll ever sell at the old margin. This is also the most acceptable time to raise prices — the excuse is on the headlines every day.

3. Campaign

Attention builds change. Email reporters in the New York Times and WSJ and tell them your story. Business owners speaking up about changes is driving positive feedback across social platforms like Instagram and Threads.

I think this would be the right time for big tech to start a fund for cash-crunched customers and support them at this time. For Google, Shopify, Meta/Instagram, Stripe, Square/Block — this would be the right thing to do, support future growth, and offer an opportunity for good PR as they built a lot of their growth on American small businesses.

If you have a small business and are open to sharing feedback with your name or anonymously, I’m putting together a list of stores that are affected and a survey with the biggest challenges HERE.

The Commerce Department reports that retail sales are short of expectations. Nike’s revenue is down, Lululemon lowered sales forecast. But what stands out most to me is what I’m reading from the ground up: on Reddit, Shopify store owners are mentioning year-over-year sales declines. And of the hundreds of stores I found on Instagram, about 2% have either gone out of business or taken down their sites within the last few months – leaving fall campaign pictures, accounts, emails ghosted. Are we on the verge of a retail slow down?

Today’s agenda - What’s selling in March

I’ve read fashion blogs for most of my life, confused. What always bothered me is how often they rely on someone saying something is cool instead of actual indicators. Who decides what’s “in,” anyway? Why should I care what a few Vogue editors think is stylish?

Yes, I remember the Devil Wears Prada monologue. But there’s a more bottoms up way to spot what’s really happening in apparel—by analyzing patterns across a mix of signals: public forum sentiment, out-of-stock alerts, trending search terms, bestsellers, front-store displays, sales racks, and maybe even data driven runway analyses.

From growing demand for natural fibers (as long as they’re reasonably priced) to the return of florals this spring (yes, florals for spring), here’s what’s selling in March.

Less polyester, more natural fibers

There’s been a shift in sentiment against polyester and in favor of natural, biodegradable materials that I just can’t shake. People are tired of the feel, the environmental impact, and the price tag that no longer matches the quality.

I notice it all over social media comments, where creators and commenters alike are calling out synthetic fabrics and celebrating linen, cotton, wool, and silk. There’s definitely been an uptick in posts calling out brands over the past few months. Every time I casually mention polyester—whether in a TikTok or a tweet—it gets a ton of traction. Clearly, it's hitting a nerve.

And it’s seen in demand- there’s a year-over-year increase in search interest for natural materials. Cotton, linen, and silk are more likely to be out of stock in certain price ranges than polyester – although this could be a symptom of newer styles being tested on polyester.

I understand why retailers use polyester. But as consumer sentiment turns against the so-called “sustainable” incumbents, there’s a real opportunity for someone new to step in, rebuild trust, and take market share. We’re in a moment where materials matter. More and more consumers are starting to ask the right questions: What are our clothes actually made of? And why do they cost so much if they’re mostly plastic?

Boho Maxis

On Reddit, sentiment toward the bohemian skirts is heating up again for 2025 with positive mentions and excitement for spring. Skirts are the most likely garment to be out of stock— selling out faster than other items; suggesting retailers may be underestimating demand or having trouble adjusting seasonally. Search interest is spiking, partially driven by seasonality rebound in skirts and partially a continued revival of last year’s boho peak.

Boho’s resurgence seems to be driven top-down—led by brands like Chloé in FW24, amplified by fashion blog coverage, now showing up across the board. Midi and maxi boho-inspired skirts were featured in a significant share of SS25 runway looks, signaling a continued shift.

This isn’t just a flash trend—it’s shaping up to be a key styling narrative for SS25, grounded in ease and femininity.

Seasonal linens and florals

Reddit is buzzing with excitement over warmer weather, and the seasonal shift is already showing up in consumer behavior. Sundresses— a spring/summer staple—are seeing a 3x spike in search interest over the last three months.

Linen is also having a moment. Search interest is steadily rising, right on schedule, ready to resume last year’s summer of linen. I knew linen was locked in for SS25 the moment I passed a big retailer SoHo window on my morning walk in early March— front mannequins in linen.

And yes, yes—we all know the meme: “Florals? For spring? Groundbreaking.” But here’s the thing: florals saw year on year demand growth last fall, meaning retailers are likely to catch up on the trend. They showed up on SS25 runways and forum mentions confirm consumer interest. I’m seeing them on many landing pages I open these days.

Florals are the safe bet. Even if they’re predictable, they work.

Emerging polka, yellow, blue

Polka dots are quietly bubbling up—searches are rising on platforms, and the pattern is slowly showing up in new drops from retailers, seen the most in new ads. It’s not dominating runways (yet), which makes this feel like a bottoms-up trend—nostalgic, and a little unique. Every drop I see is either low price or made of polyester which makes me think it’s driven by smaller retailers validating the trend or trying to get a viral drop. It definitely caught my eye.

Butter yellow is trending fast—search volume is growing faster than for standard yellow. It’s soft, slightly nostalgic, and feels very spring-coded. Paired with rising sentiment around softness, pastels, and a craving for color— it may just stick around for this year. I’m even writing this as I stare at a huge new apparel ad on 59th street showcasing every design in light yellow. It’s featured in best selling pages and cropping up on SoHo window displays.

Blue is notable as well, especially as it seems to be replacing red. In new collection emails, blue is the most commonly referenced item color for spring alerts, and it appeared in a significant portion of SS25 runway looks.

Goodbye fall!

Burgundy, plaids, and some fall style reds—which were everywhere and heavily stocked last year—are now mostly seen marked down and out of stock, with search interest in decline as the trend cycle moves on. On the SS25 runways, red made a very small portion of looks, and I’m not seeing it mentioned in spring emails as often.

In particular, burgundy is being heavily discounted compared to 3–6 months ago. That drop suggests lower demand and some last-ditch efforts from brands to clear inventory—possibly a good arbitrage opportunity for any shopper comfortable shopping off-season. After all, oxblood red (a shade off, similar to burgundy) was the color of 2012 and 2024—it’s likely to return again.

It’s also a reminder of how cyclical fashion really is — and why it’s often smarter to buy for long-term style rather than whatever happens to be on shelves right now.

Still, it’s cool to watch supply and demand play out in real time — almost like a real-life marketplace, when pricing fades as a trending color cools off.

Thanks for reading

If you enjoyed this, share it, forward it, or subscribe for more. All reporting is based on my observations, using public sources and tools I built.

Meanwhile, socials and search data imply that butter yellow and polka dots are emerging as likely to be breakout apparel trends this summer – that is if the economy doesn't further dip into fear mode and shoppers don't get scared off completely.

Freight markets are finally rebounding from a prolonged freight recession, meaning that if you've been experiencing shipping delays as a shopper or a shipper, supply chains would have had a chance to get a little bit more reliable – if it wasn't for looming tariffs in the air.

I mention all of this because the key thing about owning inventory is that retailers are stuck between two crazy worlds – dynamic and outdated supply and volatile demand with real cash on the line. It's a lot to manage, and periods of economic downturns are what separate those who are operationally prepared from those who are not.

So let’s jump in — below are the top ways companies have historically stayed ahead in recessions.

Refined product assortment

In 2008, most brands saw sales plummet nearly 20%—but not Nike. Instead of panicking, Nike got surgical with its inventory. They tightened purchasing, cut underperforming styles, and doubled down on high-margin, high-demand products with strong marketing ROI.

By maintaining strict control over inventory, Nike didn’t just survive the downturn—they came out stronger, delivering double-digit growth and cementing their dominance for the decade ahead.

Recessions are tricky. Customers get pickier, budgets get tighter. The key isn’t just cutting for the sake of it—it’s about eliminating what’s not working while ensuring the right products are in stock, at the right time, and in the right quantity.

Strong quality and value prop

LVMH’s sales remained resilient during the 2008 recession and rebounded faster than most retailers in 2020. That makes sense—consumers of higher-priced goods tend to be less price-sensitive and more insulated from downturns. But just as critical is LVMH’s strong value proposition: a commitment to quality and brand equity that drives loyalty even when spending tightens.

Not every brand needs to be luxury to survive a recession—but there’s real value in cultivating customer retention through consistent quality, timeless design, and long-term brand trust.

Improved demand forecasting

Lululemon has been around for decades, but it moves fast when it comes to adopting new tech. The company has leaned into AI to sharpen its demand forecasting and optimize inventory reorders—especially during the 2020 downturn. By using AI algorithms to accurately predict demand, automate inventory management, and fine-tune stock levels, Lululemon was able to stay reliably in-stock throughout the athleisure boom—earning its spot as a category leader.

Even small improvements—like applying regression models or time series forecasting—can significantly reduce risk and make brands more resilient in volatile markets.

In short, whatever they’re doing—it works. And there’s a lot we can learn from it.

Let’s dive in.

Data informed design

I believe Zara’s magic starts with data—long before design. Before making anything, Zara already knows what’s trending, where it’s trending, and how fast it’s selling. By pulling insights from runways, influencers, competitors, and broader trend data, they’ve built a repeatable pipeline that prioritizes designs with proven demand.

Designers aren’t just sketching in isolation—they’re tracking categorized influencers and monitoring demand signals to know what to make in real time.

The broader industry has replicated this strategy. Platforms like Trendalytics and legacy WGSN offer similar tools to track public trend signals and monitor demand across styles and SKUs.

Small batch production

When SKUs are first made, they’re produced in small quantities across different colors and styles—just enough to validate demand. Once these pieces go live, sales are closely tracked to see what’s selling and where. If a SKU performs well, it’s quickly reordered in winning styles and sizes.

This test-and-repeat model is the same strategy fueling the rise of LA-based DTC brands. Factories like TEG offer fast turnarounds and low MOQs, giving small designers the flexibility to move quickly. Paired with Shopify storefronts and TikTok-driven pre-orders, these brands can launch, test, and iterate at a pace that mirrors Zara’s—just on a smaller scale.

Rapid merchandising loop

Once collections hit the floor, store managers review sales weekly—breaking down SKUs by color, style, and category to spot what’s performing best. At the same time, Zara’s corporate team analyzes sales by region and sister stores, layering in trend signals from online channels. These insights are then shared back with store managers, empowering them to make near-instant decisions on what to restock, shift, or reorder. Inventory is adjusted as often as twice a week, in small, targeted batches.

The system is so effective that Zara barely relies on traditional marketing. Its go-to-market strategy is driven almost entirely by the strength of its in-store assortment—and how consistently it captures attention.

Lessons for smaller retailers

Zara’s entire customer retention strategy revolves around fast, responsive merchandising that keeps shoppers coming back. And it works. Data-driven design choices increase hit rates, low MOQs reduce cash flow risk, and tight monitoring with rapid reordering ensures the right inventory shows up at the right time. The result? A highly optimized assortment that’s so consistently good, it drives up customer lifetime value.

I searched through my notes, public search trends and designer runway collections to find the themes that stood out over the last year. Below are the top trends that made a dent in 2024.

Let’s dive in.

Mob wives and their furs

We started off 2024 with viral furs, mostly popularized through the “mob wife trend”. Inspired by Italian-American 90s and 80s aesthetics, the trend went extraordinarily viral in January and featured big fur coats, bold makeup, and black leather or velvet clothes. It got picked up by Kendall Jenner, who can afford exceptionally high quality furs and so furs – faux furs, this time – made a comeback into the mainstream culture in 2024.

2025 Take - Bearish: By December, the store racks in an average retailer were full of dupes on dupes of faux fur coats – minimizing the nuance of the trend. It’s hard to replicate a quality fur for the long term, and polyester, which is what faux furs are made from, is not very good for the environment or too pleasant to wear. Perhaps we’ll move on by next winter.

Fit and flare, gather and bubble

Spring is when we started moving into a recurring theme of the year – exaggerated skirts. Smaller designers found breakthroughs with dresses exaggerating hips with fitted waists combined with gathered or flared skirts; bigger brands caught on and replicated the trends.

Demand for midi dresses and more classic, feminine styles grew. Retailers saw viral success with fitted waist, boatneck bubble and gather midi skirt dresses. Multiple designs of the style went viral and sold out quickly, empowered by the crave for fitted, feminine forms.

Gathered skirt interest evolved into the bubble skirt mania that we saw in July. Suddenly, bubble skirts were everywhere. They’ve had quite a journey. Originally a nod to the 80s and Princess Diana, bubble skirts were picked up by Prada and Proenza Schouler in 2022 and 2023 collections. In July 2024, they achieved virality due to a massively affordable Zara dupe, tons of ‘girls walking across the street’ Instagram reels and our human fear of missing out.

Another popular form was the drop-waist skirt or dress; a standout of this trend was the black and white long sleeve drop waist viscose dress and its many dupes that followed over the year.

2025 Take - Bullish: Based on how things are going, I bet we’ll continue to see more drop waists and fit and flares in 2025. Personally, I loved tons of the styles we saw last summer – and I hope they make a comeback this year!

Linen and pajamas

If you saw linen everywhere last summer, you’re not the only one. Linen summer demand was up ~20% relative to prior year – it was a summer favorite, and for good reason. Linen is biodegradable, good for the heat and feels great. Its cons are that it’s easy to wrinkle and can be a bit transparent — this is why finding items with the right construction is key.

By August, we gave up and started wearing pajamas. I’m not kidding, boxer shorts and pajama pants for women went viral this August as some retailers tried to stand out from the linen pants.

2025 Take - Bullish: While the boxer shorts never grew on me, I suspect we will have the trend linger this summer. And I’m down for more linen — it’s a great, sustainable fabric that can last a long time if picked and taken care of well.

Suede, leopard, dark brown, burgundy

The micro trends that defined fall seemed to come all at once – suede, leopard and dark brown were trending up in search interest and showed up across retailer floors.

Suede was really popular back in the 70s, in the early 2000s, and back again in 2023. By 2024 fall it came back stronger, with suede bags, jackets and shoes becoming a frequently mentioned staple. Leopard search interest slightly ticked up, but didn’t become as viral as I suspect J Crew, based on their overabundance of leopard in the fall, expected.

Dark brown became one of the main colors of fall, inspired by earthy tones in FW2024 collections like those from Ralph Lauren. We also took a page straight out of 2012 – oxblood was so popular back then that the season was labeled “2012 oxblood fall”. Slightly over ten years later, Sabato de Sarno released a new color – the Gucci Rosso– in his spring 2024 collection. Since the color is basically oxblood red, burgundy, oxblood, dark red became more popular across runways and stores, exploding in popularity this fall.

2025 Take - Bearish: We’ll have to watch the runways in February to confirm what is more likely to be marketed at us through the fall. If history repeats itself, we’ll have a chance to wear our dark reds again through the oxblood fall of 2034.

Wide leg jeans and trousers

In terms of pants – the theme of 2024 was - ‘bigger’. Baggy jeans, already popular in 2023 went mainstream in 2024, largely driven by Gen Z preferences (I am not Gen Z but got my first pair in 2023 😎).

Perhaps as a response to the office siren trend, trousers started appearing more often in stores. Wide pants with pleats, relaxed pants with legs, pants became a lot more popular last year than the year prior, growing in early 2025 as well.

2025 Take - Bullish: I enjoyed adding trousers to my closet, and with increasing amount of Gen Z in the office, I think they will continue to grow in popularity in 2025.